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AWARDS ACE’s Oscars 2019 Picks

The following are AWARDS ACE Editor-in-Chief Erick Weber’s picks for Oscar, categories featuring 🔒 symbol are the night’s largest locks.

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BEST PICTURE

Winner: ROMA

If not then: A STAR IS BORN

In third: BLACK PANTHER

EW analysis: While Bradley Cooper’s director snub could spring ASIB to an upset win, ROMA has been in the Best Picture lead for seemingly all of Oscars season. Netflix Film really came through this year with a massive and uber-pricey promotional push for its films - ROMA in particular - and it will pay off with Netflix’s first Oscar win.

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BEST DIRECTOR🔒

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron ROMA

If not then: Spike Lee BLACKKKLANSMAN

In third: Pawel Pawlikowski COLD WAR

EW analysis: With wins at the Globes, DGA, Critics Choice and BAFTA, Cuaron comes in as one of the biggest locks of the night, whatever shot Lee had at winning greatly diminished when Cuaron won the DGA’s big prize.

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BEST ACTOR

Winner: Rami Malek BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

If not then: Bradley Cooper A STAR IS BORN

In third: Christian Bale VICE

EW analysis: What was once one of the closer contests has seen Malek surge into the lead with both SAG and BAFTA wins late in the season. Could Cooper sneak in and steal it away with sympathy votes after getting snubbed as director? Could Bale return to the win column after several head-to-head losses to Malek? Anything’s possible this kooky Oscar season.

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BEST ACTRESS🔒

Winner: Glenn Close THE WIFE

If not then: Olivia Colman THE FAVOURITE

In third: Lady Gaga A STAR IS BORN

EW analysis: While it looked like Close and Gaga were neck-and-neck after a tie at Critics Choice, Close’s SAG win all but cemented her Oscar. Colman makes things kinda interesting after her BAFTA win.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR🔒

Winner: Mahershala Ali GREEN BOOK

If not then: Sam Elliott A STAR IS BORN

In third: Richard E. Grant CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

EW analysis: While Grant made a strong push with his endearing social media posts and Elliott’s a heavily respected Hollywood vet, Ali won every single supporting title on the way in and is a virtual lock for his second Oscar.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Regina King IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

If not then: Rachel Weisz THE FAVOURITE

In third: Amy Adams VICE

EW analysis: Though King was snubbed by SAG, she remains the favorite to win here as none of her competitors won that award either, it went to Emily Blunt who didn’t get an Oscar nomination. Weisz carries in momentum after her BAFTA win.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: GREEN BOOK

If not then: THE FAVOURITE

In third: ROMA

EW analysis: While it suffered multiple PR nightmares on the way to Oscar, GREEN BOOK should win here over THE FAVOURITE as Academy voters fall hard for GREEN BOOK’s overall amiability though not winning the WGA title could signal things are swinging THE FAVOURITE’s way.

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BEST APAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: BLACKKKLANSMAN

If not then: CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

In third: IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

EW analysis: While striking out on night’s two biggest trophies, BLACKKKLANSMAN comes through here with its timely script but watch out, CYEFM’s WGA win makes this race much closer than it was just days ago.

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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE🔒

Winner: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

If not then: ISLE OF DOGS

In third: INCREDIBLES 2

EW analysis: To think there was a time when many (not me) thought Pixar would be impossible to beat but Spidey has won every single animation award en route to Oscar and will finish things off with one final victory.

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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: RBG

If not then: FREE SOLO

In third: HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING

EW analysis: The beneficiary of Oscar’s most egregious snub (WON’T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR), RBG should win in a fairly tight battle with FREE SOLO.

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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Winner: ROMA

If not then: COLD WAR

In third: NEVER LOOK AWAY

EW analysis: It’s not inconceivable that Oscar voters attempt to spread their foreign film love around by handing COLD WAR the win here but we’re taking ROMA to make Oscar history by becoming the first Best Picture and Best Foreign Language winner.

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: ROMA

If not then: COLD WAR

In third: THE FAVOURITE

EW analysis: While COLD WAR has its Academy supporters as evidenced by Pawlikowski’s director nomination (and its ASC win over ROMA), Cuaron and ROMA pull it out for ROMA’s fourth and final Oscar of the night.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: BLACK PANTHER Ludwig Goransson

If not then: BLACKKKLANSMAN Terence Blanchard

In third: IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK Nicholas Britell

EW analysis: Like editing, this is another of the closest categories and it’s a toss-up between BLACK PANTHER, BLACKKKLANSMAN & BEALE STREET, we’ll take Goransson after the snubbing of Justin Hurwitz’s stellar FIRST MAN score.

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BEST original song🔒

Winner: “Shallow” A STAR IS BORN

If not then: “All the Stars” BLACK PANTHER

In third: “Trip A Little Light Fantastic” MARY POPPINS RETURNS

EW analysis: Biggest lock of the night and what’s looking like A STAR IS BORN’s only Oscar win after far greater expectations entering awards season.

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BEST Costume design

Winner: BLACK PANTHER

If not then: THE FAVOURITE

In third: MARY POPPINS RETURNS

EW analysis: Flip a coin here between BLACK PANTHER & THE FAVOURITE, hard to bet against a period piece here but that’s how we’re gonna roll.

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BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING🔒

Winner: VICE

If not then: MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

In third: BORDER

EW analysis: VICE scores its lone Oscar thanks to work that saw Bale physically dissolve into his shotgun-blasting VP character.

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BEST production design

Winner: THE FAVOURITE

If not then: FIRST MAN

In third: BLACK PANTHER

EW analysis: Really wanted to go FIRST MAN here but winning the Art Directors Guild trophy puts THE FAVOURITE over the top.

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BEST film editing

Winner: BLACKKKLANSMAN

If not then: VICE

In third: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

EW analysis: One of the tightest races here, could see any of these three win but we’ll take BLACKKKLANSMAN for its second Oscar.

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BEST sound editing

Winner: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

If not then: FIRST MAN

In third: A QUIET PLACE

EW analysis: We had FIRST MAN out in front for the majority of the race but BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY will likely win one or both sound awards after its late surge in the polls and MPSE win.

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BEST sound mixing

Winner: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

If not then: FIRST MAN

In third: A STAR IS BORN

EW analysis: Will FIRST MAN go winless on the night or will it manage one of the two sound awards? Looks like a strikeout after BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY won both major sound guild awards this past weekend including CAS’ big prize.

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BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

If not then: FIRST MAN

In third: READY PLAYER ONE

EW analysis: Tony Stark & company versus Neil Armstrong in a battle that saw both AIW and FIRST MAN win Visual Effects Society awards as a precursor to Oscar, we’ll take the Marvel crew in a close one.

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BEST ANIMATED SHORT🔒

Winner: BAO

If not then: ANIMAL BEHAVIOUR

In third: LATE AFTERNOON

EW analysis: Last year, Kobe beat Pixar but Bryant isn’t around this year which means bet heavy on the hopping lamp entry.

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: A NIGHT AT THE GARDEN

If not then: PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE.

In third: LIFEBOAT

EW analysis: With discussions of Nazism becoming a daily norm, a historical documentary about that very subject is very hard to vote against.

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: MARGUERITE

If not then: SKIN

In third: DETAINMENT

EW analysis: With four out of the five nominees featuring incredibly depressing subjects, MARGUERITE wins here for at least leaving things on a touching note.

PROJECTED OSCARS BY FILM

ROMA: 4

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY: 3

BLACKKKLANSMAN: 2

BLACK PANTHER: 2

GREEN BOOK: 2

A STAR IS BORN: 1

THE FAVOURITE: 1

THE WIFE: 1

VICE: 1

IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK: 1

SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE: 1

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR: 1

RBG: 1