GOLDEN GLOBES PICKS
Tonight’s Golden Globe Awards as AWARDS ACE sees them:
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Will win: A STAR IS BORN
If not then: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
In third: BLACK PANTHER
Odd films out: BLACKKKLANSMAN, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
EW take: We start with the most prestigious trophy of the night, as the Globes split their best picture into two categories, drama is typically where we see films with the greatest chance to win Oscar. And with ROMA only eligible in foreign language due to the HFPA’s (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) rules, this is A STAR IS BORN’s to win, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY in second.
Best Motion Picture - Musical Or Comedy
Will win: GREEN BOOK
If not then: THE FAVOURITE
In third: VICE
Odd films out: CRAZY RICH ASIANS, MARY POPPINS RETURNS
EW take: Although THE FAVOURITE should be the winner here, it might be a bit too edgy for the HPFA’s liking so we’ll take GREEN BOOK due to its easy overall likability thanks in large part to its two leads.
Best Director - Motion Picture
Will win: Alfonso Cuaron ROMA
If not then: Bradley Cooper A STAR IS BORN
In third: Adam McKay VICE
Odd directors out: Peter Farrelly GREEN BOOK, Spike Lee BLACKKKLANSMAN
EW take: Only major head-to-head meeting of the night between Oscar’s two towering titans, ROMA and A STAR IS BORN, this round goes to ROMA, although it will be really close with plenty of voters wanting to give Cooper some due for his directorial debut.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Will win: Rami Malek BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
If not then: Bradley Cooper A STAR IS BORN
In third: Willem Dafoe AT ETERNITY’S GATE
Odd actors out: Lucas Hedges BOY ERASED, John David Washington BLACKKKLANSMAN
EW take: Pretty much how we see it shaping up at the Oscars, it’ll be Cooper and Malek battling it out for best actor, we’re taking Malek here for his fully committed dissolve into one of rock music’s most iconic personas.
Best Performance by an Actor Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Will win: Christian Bale VICE
If not then: Viggo Mortensen GREEN BOOK
In third: Robert Redford THE OLD MAN AND THE GUN
Odd actors out: Lin-Manuel Miranda MARY POPPINS RETURNS, John C. Reilly STAN & OLLIE
EW take: Bale wins this in a landslide thanks to his top two Oscar contenders duking it out in drama, that won’t be the case come February 24th.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Will win: Lady Gaga A STAR IS BORN
If not then: Glenn Close THE WIFE
In third: Melissa McCarthy CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME
Odd actresses out: Nicole Kidman DESTROYER, Rosamund Pike A PRIVATE WAR
EW take: The HPFA is notorious for being extra smitten by celebrities and Gaga is a pretty damn big one in a seriously big zeitgeisty film, she wins over the veteran Close.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Will win: Emily Blunt MARY POPPINS RETURNS
If not then: Olivia Colman THE FAVOURITE
In third: Constance Wu CRAZY RICH ASIANS
Odd actresses out: Charlize Theron TULLY, Elsie Fisher EIGHTH GRADE
EW take: While Colman has the greater chances at Oscar, Blunt wins here for reasoning similar to Gaga’s, Blunt’s a star who brought an iconic role back to life, right up the HPFA’s alley.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Will win: Richard E. Grant CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
If not then: Mahershala Ali GREEN BOOK
In third: Timothee Chalamet BEAUTIFUL BOY
Odd actors out: Adam Driver BLACKKKLANSMAN, Sam Rockwell VICE
EW take: Six weeks ago we would have had Ali here but Grant has been picking up momentum after winning virtually every major critics group’s supporting trophy. He’s also our favorite of these five nominees though he’d be Grant #2 if the HFPA had bothered to watch PADDINGTON 2.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Will win: Amy Adams VICE
If not then: Regina King IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
In third: Emma Stone THE FAVOURITE
Odd actresses out: Claire Foy FIRST MAN, Rachel Weisz THE FAVOURITE
EW take: This is by far the most wide open of any of the film categories, could easily see King win after getting snubbed by SAG but we’ll go out on that awards’ limb and take Adams, Stone and Weisz essentially cancel each other out by being from the same film.
Best Animated Motion Picture
Will win: INCREDIBLES 2
If not then: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
In third: ISLE OF DOGS
Odd films out: MIRAI, RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
EW take: While Spidey’s been making massive gains over the last month, Pixar productions are hard to beat here so we’ll take I2. That said, come Oscar time, we’re probably going to swap their two positions.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Will win: THE FAVOURITE
If not then: GREEN BOOK
In third: VICE
Odd writers out: ROMA, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
EW take: It’s THE FAVOURITE versus GREEN BOOK round two but this time we’ll take the former’s acerbic script in a close call, though we won’t be least bit surprised to see GREEN BOOK sweep their head-to-head meetings.
Best Original Song - Motion Picture
Will win: "Shallow" A STAR IS BORN (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson)
If not then: "Girl in the Movies" DUMPLIN’ (Dolly Parton)
In third: "All The Stars" BLACK PANTHER (Kendrick Lamar, SZA)
Odd songs out: "Requiem for a Private War" A PRIVATE WAR (Annie Lennox), "Revelation" BOY ERASED (Troye Sivan)
EW take: The second biggest lock of the night sees Gaga pick up her second Globe for A STAR IS BORN’s signature song.
Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Will win: Justin Hurwitz FIRST MAN
If not then: Marc Shaiman MARY POPPINS RETURNS
In third: Ludwig Goransson BLACK PANTHER
Odd scores out: Alexandre Desplat ISLE OF DOGS, Marco Beltrami A QUIET PLACE
EW take: While it’s gone from frontrunner to far, far back in the pack, FIRST MAN is too masterfully assembled to not walk away with something so we’ll take Hurwitz for his scintillating score, in particular “The Landing”.
Best Motion Picture - Foreign Language
Will win: ROMA
If not then: ROMA will win
In third: ROMA will win
Odd films out: SHOPLIFTERS, NEVER LOOK AWAY, GIRL, CAPERNAUM
Analysis: ROMA will win in the biggest lock of the night, COLD WAR was criminally not nominated.